West Hollywood, California (Monday, July 21, 2008) - The most recent Field Poll, conducted in early July, shows that only 40 percent of the state’s likely voters are likely to support the take-away of civil rights from gays and lesbians. 
The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and non-partisan media-sponsored public opinion news service. WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
By a slight majority, however, Californians appear to support the No On 8 campaign, which would leave the historic CA Supreme Court decision allowing gays and lesbians the same civil rights as others intact.
According to their findings, 51 percent of Californians would vote no on the measure, which would define marriage as only between a man and woman. Forty-two percent of voters support the November ballot measure
The poll asked the following question of 672 likely voters selected randomly from telephone books across the state:
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 8, the state constitutional amendment that would place limits on marriages in California to appear on the November statewide election ballot?
If the answer was yes, they asked:
(As you know) Proposition 8 is the “Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment.” It amends the California constitution to provide that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. 
Attorney David Codell speaking for gay and lesbian rights at a West Hollywood rally in June. Photo By WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 8, the Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment?
The co-author of the poll, Michael DeCamillo, told the Los Angeles Times that these early numbers boded ill for the proposition’s success, referring to the passage of Proposition 22 on which 61 percent voted yeah.
Proposition 22 was worded identically, but did not have Constitutional Amendment status. That law, among others, was what the CA Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional in May.
The proponents of the ballot measure declared the results were positive. "We think this bodes quite well for us," Jennifer Kerns, spokeswoman for the Protect Marriage campaign said to the Times.
She pointed to a Field Poll in May that saw opposition to the amendment three points higher – at 54 percent.
Mr. DiCamillo, however, said that the two polls were decidedly different, particularly because the former did not contain the actual wording of the amendment, nor had thousands of same-sex couple been married.
The stage at the WeHo Same-Sex marriage vistory rally helf in June. Photo By WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
He wrote in his poll, “There is relatively high voter awareness of Proposition 8 among the state’s voting electorate. Statewide 62 percent of likely voters report having seen or heard something about the proposed constitutional amendment.”
Additionally, according to the poll, voters living in California’s coastal counties, which represents 69 percent of all likely voters, oppose Prop. 8 by a margin of 56 percent to 37 percent.
Opinions are almost reversed among Californians living in inland counties, where supporters outnumber opponents 54 percent to 40 percent.
The strongest opposition to Prop. 8 is found in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, where voters oppose Prop. 8 by a two and one-half to one margin (67 percent to 26 percent). They are joined by voters in Los Angeles County who are also on the No side, 51 percent to 41 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Central Valley and in other parts of Northern California outside of the Bay Area are opposed on the order of five to four.
In Southern California areas outside Los Angeles County, preferences are more evenly split (50 percent No and 45 percent Yes).
Same-Sex couples lined up by the score to exchange their vows in West Hollywood Park when the ban against their civil right to marry was lifted. Photo By WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
Women voters are lining up on the No side of Prop. 8 to a greater extent than men – 54 percent No and 40 percent Yes among women vs. 49 percent No and 45 percent Yes among men.
By age, opposition to Prop. 8 is plain in all categories statewide, with those age 65 and older with the closest margin – 46 percent in favor of limiting the civil right to marry and 47 opposed.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish July 8-14, 2008. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California.
Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter.
Interviews were conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file.
Rescinding the civil right to marriage would devastate thousands of families, like this one, who have been married believing the gay marriage ban would remain unconstitutional. Photo By WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
After the completion of interviewing, the results were weighted slightly to re-align the overall sample to characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depends on the sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 672 likely voters is +/- 3.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
The entire report can be read at http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers
The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and non-partisan media-sponsored public opinion news service.
A West Hollywood town hall meeting will be held on Wednesday, July 23. See the WeHo News Community Section for further details.
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